Qualification has become somewhat more difficult for the Azzurre after defeat against Denmark in Empoli, though it is not yet out of reach. Various calculations can be done to determine their potential path - without going through the playoffs - to the finals of the Women’s Euro 2022, which will take place in England in two years’ time. In fact, the rules of the competition state that, from the ten groups, the first-place teams and the three best-ranked second-placed teams will qualify directly for the final tournament, while the other six runners-up will contest the playoffs for the three remaining places. In order to be ranked among the three best runners-up, Italy will need to take at least a point from their game against Denmark in Viborg on 1 December. This is obviously all hypothetical, but also entirely possible considering the current situation.

As it stands in the current ranking of group runners-up (remember that in the groups of six points against the bottom side will be discounted to make it even with the groups of five), France and Austria are joint top of Group G, currently on 16 points and with a game against each other and relatively easy upcoming fixtures against Kazakhstan and Serbia respectively still to play. The best-case scenario is that the runner-up takes four points, so four in case of a draw between the two (19 if either won takes six points). Then we have Belgium, who have 18 points with just one game left to play, against group leaders Switzerland (19). If they draw, Belgium reach 19 points, lose and they stay on 18.

Here’s where the Azzurre come in. With 15 points from six games, they have an away game against Denmark and the rearranged fixture against Israel still to play. Four points from these two would take us to 19 points, potentially level with either Belgium or Switzerland (we have a +20 goal difference, +27 for Belgium, +17 for Switzerland). Six points would mean Italy would be on 21 points and virtually qualified. However, a defeat against the Danes would potentially leave the Azzurre on 18 points, which would risk not breaking the top three. The first danger comes from Iceland, who currently stand on 13 points from six games and play Hungary and Slovakia, who they’ve already beaten 4-1 and 1-0. Iceland could potentially reach 19 points if they win both of those games, the same total that Italy could find themselves with if they draw against Denmark. If we finish level on points with Iceland, goal difference comes into play: +20 for us, +17 for them.

An unknown may spring up from Group E, given the vast amount of rearranged fixtures still to be played. Portugal are currently second in that group on ten points from four games and will play Scotland (nine points) twice, then Finland (top on 13) and Albania. The Portuguese could finish on 22 points, but at the same time they could be out of the running much earlier. Both Finland if they slip down to second and Scotland if they hit good form could come into play. It’s difficult to really predict the final standings in this group, but the probability is that all three of these teams will likely drop points and the runner-up will not be among the top three.

Far behind the rest we have Poland, who have 14 points from seven games. The Poles are currently top of the group, followed by Spain, who have taken 13 points from five games and have Azerbaijan, Moldova and Poland still to play. The Spanish should finish top of that group, while Poland can finish on a maximum of 17 points. Wales have twelve points from seven games and can only get to a total of 15 (second-placed Northern Ireland have two games left and could finish on 17). In the last group, the Republic of Ireland are currently second on 13 points and only have one game left to play, which is against leaders Germany. It is likely that Ukraine will overtake the Irish as they currently have twelve points with a game against Moldova (who have lost every game) still to play. Ukraine will therefore probably finish on 15. Russia (nine points from six games) may finish on 15; they have relatively easy games against Turkey and Kosovo to play, who they beat 4-1 and 5-0 respectively.

As it stands already qualified are: Denmark (top of Group B and among the best runners-up), the Netherlands (A), England (hosts), Germany (I), Norway (C) and Sweden (F).

RANKING OF GROUP RUNNERS-UP

Group	Team	Points	Games played	Potential points	Probable points
H	Belgium*	18	7	18/19	18/19
G	France and Austria	16	6	20	19/20
B	Italy	15	6	21	18/21
D	Poland**	14	7	17	14/17
F	Iceland	13	6	19	17/19
I	Ireland ***	13	7	16	13
C	Wales	12	7	15	15
E	Portugal	10	4	22	16/19
A	Russia	9	6	15	15

 

* second behind Switzerland on 19; game against the Swiss at home. If Belgium win, Switzerland finish second on 19.

** currently ahead of Spain (13 points/five games), who have three games to play and are considered as probably topping the group.

*** Ireland are currently second (13/7), but they play leaders Germany on the final matchday. Ukraine (12 points) could overtake them but this has no influence on the outcome of the best runners-up.